4-week trend: weather until August 22

Through Regis CREPET, meteorologist

Every Thursday, the 4-week weather trend is updated. The latter, which covers the rest of the summer vacation, presents the most likely weather scenario for the next four weeks until August 22.

While the beginning of summer was marked by a very capricious weather with frequent precipitation and thunderstorms linked to the passage of several “cold drops”, the beautiful summer weather has finally managed to settle for a few days this week. As announced for a long time, this beautiful period of sunny and hot weather does not promise to be lasting since a more unstable weather is setting up for the end of July and the beginning of August.

Week from July 26 to August 1 : between clearings, showers and thunderstorms

It is therefore the return of a more unstable weather with an often changing sky, alternating between periods of clearings and cloudy passages sometimes accompanied by showers, even thunderstorms. Note that for once, the Mediterranean coast seems threatened by these stormy showers. Temperatures are trending downwards while remaining fairly close to seasonal norms.

Week of August 2 to 8 : rainy-stormy passages

Continued weather quite disturbed and unstable with passages of rain or thunderstorms over many regions. A few periods of dry weather with clear spells will develop at times but they will never be lasting. Temperatures are said to be quite fluctuating but often a little below seasonal norms.

Week of August 9 to 15 : still unstable in the north, better in the south

The weather would remain unstable in the northern half with showers and temperatures still too fair for the season. In the south, the high pressure could swell again and bring more pleasant weather with beautiful sunny periods.

Week of August 16 to 22 : time improvement wins the northern half

The high pressure could prevail over the whole country with generous sunshine and sharply rising temperatures, exceeding seasonal norms.

In conclusion, this summer is set to be atypical with short periods of good weather and frequently unstable weather with showers and thunderstorms. No period of long lasting heat, unlike the last few summers.

After a first half of July with a deficit of just over 1 ° C, this month of July should end in the normal range or with a slight surplus given the sharp rise in temperatures that we have experienced this week. As for precipitation, we can already say that it will be much more watered than expected. initially given the heavy rains at the beginning of the month over many regions and the new precipitation to come. However, the south-east remains threatened by a lasting drought with a significant risk of fires.

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Weather balance of the first part of the summer: record rains, violent thunderstorms, fluctuating temperatures

Seasonal forecast for late summer and early fall